CDI Climate Change Demonstration

Explanation

This "Scenario List" aims to include the scenarios in the CDI Climate Demonstration at http://cdi.projectkhalid.org and also provide a platform for outsiders to suggest additional security-related impacts. This open set-up means that the page may change rapidly and may include scenarios not not yet included in the demonstration. Be sure to check the history if you are unsure about the age of any scenario in the list. A [http://cdi.projectkhalid.org/static.html Static Version] will also be kept.

If you add a security impact scenario and attach your name or email address (or email to tfine@cdi.org), we will give you credit on the demonstration site if we choose to incorporate your writing or idea.

Scenario List

AFGHANISTAN

• Drought increases reliance on opium poppy crop. Illicit funds support terrorism and anti-regime forces.
• Drought fuels conflict between warlords over water supplies. Central government unable to dampen internal conflict.

ALAND ISLANDS

ALBANIA

• Reduced water supply in Western Albania as a result of weaker stream flow causes riots.

ALGERIA

• Islamic militants adapt to agricultural declines by providing free public services. They gain sufficient public support to reinvigorate revolutionary movement.

ANDORRA

ANGOLA

ANGUILLA

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

ARGENTINA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause migration from Buenos Aires Province. Competition over other territories causes internal disputes and conflict.

ARMENIA

ARUBA

AUSTRALIA

• Internal migration to a Northwest with relatively greater water supply causes domestic controversy. Many citizens oppose government land deals and distribution policies.

AUSTRIA

AZERBAIJAN

BAHAMAS

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

BAHRAIN

BANGLADESH

• Flooding causes massive refugee flow toward India. Implications of irreversable damage destabilize government with public blame for inadequate response and insufficient investment in dykes.

BARBADOS

BELARUS

BELGIUM

BELIZE

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

BENIN

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

BERMUDA

BHUTAN

• Lower agricultural yields fuel push for land reform. Maoist insurgency increasingly develops by adapting this rhetoric.

BOLIVIA

• Flooding and landslides in Bolivia cause internal migration.
• Glacial melt causes water shortages in Bolivia and generates riots.

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

BOTSWANA

BRAZIL

• Huge reductions in land suitable for coffee in Brazil cause economic dislocations and protests.
• Perception that the Brazilian central government is failing to address epidemic of the parasitic disease visceral leishmaniasis in the Northeast fuels tension between regions.
• Unusual drought in Amazon triggers massive fires. Indigenous refugees and international outcry create chaotic siutation.
• Continued and increasing subsidies to drought-ridden Northeast Brazil triggers secession movement by some Southern states.
• Massive species die-off in the rainforest results in radical, anti-development movement, which launches terrorist attacks against farms and pro-agricultural government complexes.

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

BULGARIA

BURKINA FASO

BURUNDI

• Persistent drought exacerbates tensions between Hutus and Tutsis, reigniting ethnic violence.

CAMBODIA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

CAMEROON

• Desertification triggers wide scale ethnic conflict between Kotokos and Choa Arabs.

CANADA

CAPE VERDE

• CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

CHAD

• Persistent drought triggers fighting between Toroboro farmers and Arab herders.

CHILE

CHINA

• Drought in Xinjiang stirs Uyghurs opposition to Han Chinese influx. Eventually triggers armed conflict.
• Water shortages, blamed on Chinese diversion, cause India to provide arms and support to a new Tibetan insurgent movement.
• Failure to resolve local water disputes causes groups of farmers to act independently. Increased local assertions result in periodic violence against central government authorities.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

COLOMBIA

• Glacier retreat affects hydroelectric generation in Colombia, triggering persistent blackouts and looting.
• Epidemic malaria in Colombia fuels poverty and civil conflict.

COMOROS

REPUBLIC OF CONGO

• THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

COSTA RICA

• Water shortages on the Pacific coast of Costa Rica trigger unrest.

COTE DIVOIRE

• Poor cotton yields due to drought in the North fuel Muslim opposition movements, generating violence and a harsh government response.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

CROATIA

CUBA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

CYPRUS

• Beach erosion from flooding devastates tourist trade and triggers political unrest over perceived governmental failures.

CZECH REPUBLIC

DENMARK

DJIBOUTI

• Drought fuels conflict between Afars and Issas. Cattle raiding practices increase.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

DOMINICA

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

ECUADOR

• Flooding causes substantial damage to Guayaquil City, Ecuador. Massive internal refugee flow results.

EGYPT

• Flooding in coastal region causes mass migration. In Cairo, refugees from the Alexandria Governorate protest lack of government assistance.

EL SALVADOR

• Flooding in El Salvador along Lempa rivers causes major migration. Public angry at government over perceived failure of reconstruction projects.

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

ERITREA

ESTONIA

ETHIOPIA

FAEROE ISLANDS

FALKLAND ISLANDS

FIJI

• Sea level rise and flooding cause internal refugee flow.

FINLAND

FRANCE

FRENCH GUIANA

• Increasing malaria rates in French Guiana hurt tourism. Public rages against French policies and lack of support.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

GABON

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

GAMBIA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

GEORGIA

GERMANY

GHANA

• Water shortages trigger conflict between Dagomba and nomadic Kokomba in northern Ghana.
• Drought worsens agricultural yields and limits effectiveness of Akosombo Dam. Popular unrest over electricity shortages and perceived government planning failures.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

GREAT BRITAIN

GREECE

• Water shortages, beach erosion, and excessive heat reduce tourism--generating political unrest and riots over accusations of poor government management.

GREENLAND

GRENADA

GUADELOUPE

GUATEMALA

• Severe food shortages result in reemergence of aggressive leftist opposition to government. Food protests erupt.

GUINEA

• Flooding destroys rice crop and triggers food riots in Conakry.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

GUINEA-BISSAU

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

GUYANA

• Repeated flooding generates internal refugee flow and accusations of neglected infastructure due to racism. Tensions spark riots and violence between Afro-Guyanese and East Indians.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

HAITI

HONDURAS

HONG KONG

HUNGARY

ICELAND

INDIA

• Drought in state of Orissa causes clashes between citizens and government. People often blame liberalized agricultural policies.
• Persistent flooding and natural disasters in Kerala, without substantial central government support, leads to Communist-inspired independence movement. Central government crackdown leads to sporodic violence.
• Widespread protests over water resources strain democratic system and lead many to question traditional assumptions about fair distribution. Anti-democratic, regionally-based ideologies increasingly develop.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

INDONESIA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

IRAN

• Drought magnifies dissatisfaction with Islamic regime. Counter-revolution develops, but is more radical leftist than pro-Western in orientation.

IRAQ

• Drought prompts central government to limit supply of water to Shiite south, exacerbating religious-ethnic division.

IRELAND

ISRAEL

ITALY

• Nativist backlash against African environmental refugees triggers incident of mass murder against Africans living in shantytown in Sicily. Africans and many Italians protest hostile climate.

JAMAICA

• Massive Category 5 level hurricane hits Kingston and causes massive death toll. U.S. military provides massive relief.

JAPAN

JORDAN

KAZAKHSTAN

KENYA

• Fighting between Kikuyu and Maasai groups over water supplies triggers civil war and massive refugee flow.

NORTH KOREA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

SOUTH KOREA

KUWAIT

KYRGYZSTAN

LAOS

LATVIA

LEBANON

• Water shortages in Beirut emerge despite conventional wisdom of sufficient resources. Religious cleavages stoked by accusations of unfair distribution.

LESOTHO

LIBERIA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

LIBYA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

LIECHTENSTEIN

LITHUANIA

LUXEMBOURG

MACEDONIA

MADAGASCAR

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

MALAWI

• Persistent drought and low agricultural yields eat at ethnic unity. Country begins to divide and prospect of ethnic conflict reasserts itself.

MALAYSIA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

MALI

MALTA

• Persistent drought and poor water quality leads to political agitation and unrest.

MARTINIQUE

MAURITANIA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

MAURITIUS

MEXICO

• Persistent drought in Chiapas fuels internal division. Anti-Zapatista paramilitary groups spark violence in protest of perceived poor support for agriculture and weak relations with the national government, which result in a lack of food aid.
• Drought in Nouthern Mexico increases demand for emigration to the United States. American nativism restricts flow, and poor farmers begin to protest weak Mexican employment policies.

MOLDOVA

MONGOLIA

• Drought makes Mongolia increasing dependent on support from neighbors. China and Russia fund rival political factions.

MONTENEGRO

MONTSERRAT

MOROCCO

• African environmental refugee flow causes racist backlash. Attacks against refugees trying to reach Europe cause international scandal.

MOZAMBIQUE

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

MYANMAR

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

NAMIBIA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

NEPAL

NETHERLANDS

NEW CALEDONIA

NEW ZEALAND

NICARAGUA

NIGER

NIGERIA

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

NORWAY

OMAN

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

PAKISTAN

• Drought fuels opposition to regime by Pashtuns in South Waziristan.
• Drought results in protests involving accusations of provincial preference in the distribution of water. Conflict between Punjab province and Sindh province, along with others, erupts.

PALAU

• PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES
• Drought in the region results in Israel limiting supplies to Palestine. Major reinvigorated intifada explodes.

PANAMA

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

PARAGUAY

PERU

• Reduction of spawning areas hurts Peruvian fish catch. Forced changes in diet trigger unrest.
• Water shortages and altered agricultural patterns encourage formation of new guerrilla movement protesting land distribution.

PHILIPPINES

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

POLAND

PORTUGAL

PUERTO RICO

QATAR

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

REUNION

ROMANIA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

• Increased viability for agriculture in East causes new agricultural firms to establish large farms. Use of immigrant labor and perceived unfair government facilitation of land transfer cause rural protest.

RWANDA

• Persistent drought exacerbates tensions between Hutus and Tutsi and reignites ethnic violence.
• SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS

SAINT LUCIA

SAMOA

• SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE

SAUDI ARABIA

• Threats of high international carbon taxes cause uncertainty and internal conflict within Saudi royal family over response.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

SENEGAL

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

SERBIA

• Contestation over water supplies and agricultural land leads to re-intensified guerilla war with Kosovo.

SIERRA LEONE

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

SINGAPORE

SLOVAKIA

SLOVENIA

SOLOMON ISLANDS

• Sea level rise triggers massive refugee outflow.

SOMALIA

• Drought fuels warlordism and civil war.

SOUTH AFRICA

• Increased desertification results in the poor relying on increasingly ad-hoc regional administrations. Perceived lack of central government attention leads to national division.
• SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS

SPAIN

SRI LANKA

• Government takes advantage of flooding in Jaffna by launching invasion. Ill will permanently sets back reconciliation as insurgency continues.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

SUDAN

• Food shortages from drought and other effects of warming reignite North-South ethnic conflict and cause massive refugee flows.

SURINAME

• Increasing malaria rates in Suriname hurt tourism. Public rages against Dutch policies and lack of support.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

SVALBARD AND JAN MAYEN

SWAZILAND

• Persistent drought causes textile investor pullout and government instability.

SWEDEN

SWITZERLAND

• SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC

TAIWAN

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

TAJIKISTAN

TANZANIA

THAILAND

• Coastal erosion fuels Islamic insurgency with militants blaming central government for inaction.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

TIMOR-LESTE

TOGO

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

TONGA

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

TUNISIA

• Persistent desertification results in public dissatisfaction and protests over national water policies. Public opening sets stage for opposition movement.
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

TURKEY

TURKMENISTAN

TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

UGANDA

• Drought fuels clashes between Karimojong herders and government.

UKRAINE

• UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

UNITED KINGDOM

• Persistant migration and refugee flows into the UK cause nativist backlash and anti-refugee violence.

UNITED STATES

• Massive Category 5 level hurricane strikes Miami and causes massive devastation. Looting breaks out and U.S. military intervenes.
• Eco-terrorist groups angered by impacts of warming launch bomb attack against major oil refinery.

URUGUAY

• Sea level rise in Rio de la Plata triggers massive erosion, devastating tourist industry in Uruguay and causing political unrest.

UZBEKISTAN

VANUATU

VENEZUELA

• Radical leftist government establishes fund to supply nations victimized by natural disasters with free fuel. Western nations criticize foreign policy based on gifts of fossil fuels; Venezuela blames the West for generating the original problem.

VIETNAM

• Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

VIRGIN ISLANDS, BRITISH

WESTERN SAHARA

YEMEN

• Conflict between tribes involves contestation over water resources, sparking civil war.

ZAMBIA

ZIMBABWE